UBI is a bad idea

Universal Basic Income is the best bad idea to deal with the future of universal automation. It's bad for humanity because of the power dynamics it requires and the incentives those power dynamics will create.

This thing we call "The Economy"

"The Economy" is often used in this vague way like we're describing the weather. "The Economy is shit lately" or "Going on a vacation? In this Economy?" People often imagine it as this fickle beast that can only be partially tamed and only by people that have the same politics as them.

In reality The Economy is the way we provide for each other. It is a complex network of labor, goods, and capital that helps coordinate all that we need to keep each other alive. It has flaws and breaks down sometimes, but regardless of whether a country is Capitalist or Socialist, The Economy is how everything gets done.

How we govern an economy is a reflection of how we see each other, how we value each other's work, and how we think prosperity is achieved as a society.

Capitalism has been the most effective way to govern an economy in practice. It is directly responsible for lifting billions of people out of poverty and chipping away at the power of elites.

We have not discovered any other system that keeps incumbents from taking all the power and preventing progress. We have not discovered another system that can more accurately price goods taking into account their availability and desirability by billions of people in real time. We have not discovered a better way to reward competent people in proportion to how much they contribute to society.

It would be foolish to use any other system in the future.

UBI will essentially introduce a version of economic governance that subverts what Capitalism does to keep humanity from being ruled by dictators and stagnating.

The essential problem of automation

Capitalism works in favor of everyday, hardworking humans when the labor of humans is required to make or do things. People's labor is rewarded monetarily, and therefore people can be rewarded when they acquire more valuable skills.

This creates a world where people have agency, and motivation to improve their lot in life.

In a world where AI and robots can do 99%+ of what humans can do, how do we structure the world so that humans participate in the economy?

These are the current ideas on the table.

1. Universal Basic Income (UBI): corporations do all the stuff that creates goods and provides services, and the government taxes them to provide people a monthly stipend that is calculated to be enough to survive (and maybe thrive).
2. Universal Basic Employment (UBE): This is just UBI with the extra step of guaranteed jobs for people, even if the job isn't really contributing to the actual economy that provides for everyone.
3. Communism: the government does what the corporations do in the above two scenarios.
4. Do nothing: corporations accumulate more ability to make everything without human workers, which leads to unprecedented accumulation of power.

Why these answers suck

All of the above ideas rely on the continued benevolence of the elites to provide for everybody else. The elites will control the means of production, which will be more than enough to provide their own abundance. We may have a few benevolent leaders or maybe even a noble generation, but eventually that power will be abused.

The most likely outcome if we stay the course is the elites have their own walled garden of unimaginable abundance and the rest of us have next to nothing starting over with very little productive capabilities (think of the movie Elysium).

The other outcome is that we try something different: UBI / UBE / Communism. These are tempting because they "feel fair" to people, but they will be vulnerable to tyranny. The UBI/UBE/ration checks only need to be high enough to prevent revolts at first, but eventually when the the military and police are mostly automated there will be no effective way to revolt.

The final boss of system design is always tyranny. The only systems that have been proven to be resistant to tyranny are republics and capitalism. They are the best at restraining power, making the powerful compete with each other, and tying the well being of the elite to the citizenry at large.

We must preserve these ideals through the transition of automation.

The conditions for human flourishing through this transition

A) Markets must be preserved. No monopolies, no regulatory capture, highly competitive, low barriers to entry, transparent and dynamic. Keep the powerful competing with each other to make better products and services for the citizenry.

B) We must foster an economy where people still get an income from providing something of value to each other even if robots and AI can do it better. (instead of relying on a government check for income)

C) People must be socially mobile. There must be some level of agency and motivation to better oneself to improve one’s lot in life.

D) The average amount of labor needed to survive must go down as we automate things. Otherwise people aren't benefitting from the productivity improves we've all contributed to.

The policies to bring this about

Allowing universal price collapse: The best antidote to a nanny state is making things so cheap no one needs welfare. Automation has the capacity to drop the prices of everything so much that the world is unrecognizable.

This will be painful for asset owners (homeowners specifically) because the cost of everything will go down. That shouldn't stop us from facilitating this change.

The Craft Economy: AI and robots may be able to automate anything humans can do, but humans enjoy what other people produce. There's always a premium on a hand-made mug or a piece of jewelry made by someone with a story, etc.

If we build our economy to support most people developing and selling their craft, we can preserve human labor as something valuable. That means governments will garner tax revenue from it.

Universal Basic Asset: Have the government give a lump sum gift to every 18 year old citizen that can be used to pay for schooling, making investments, pay for a ticket to colonies on Mars, Venus, etc, or taking time to travel and explore. No strings attached. 

If the US government were to replace all welfare spending (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc) with UBA: every 18 year old would get ~$1 million dollars.

This doesn't touch defense spending, or any other aspect of the federal government. If invested that's enough to provide a basic lifestyle in perpetuity, especially as prices collapse due to automation.

The key is that each citizen has autonomy over the means of providing for themselves, and every citizen gets an equal share in the bounty of what humanity has achieved.

Capitalize on the opportunity for human flourishing

Human flourishing requires autonomy, opportunity, community, and many other things. A world where we can work a lot less to provide for ourselves is a good thing. A world where no one has the ability to improve their lot in life, no matter how hard they work, is a bad thing.

The age of automation that is unfolding before us is a tremendous opportunity to harness the rewards of what humanity has built since we crawled out of the mud. It is actually within our grasp to end hunger, to end homelessness, to end the futility of jobs that bring no meaning to life.

We must prepare for the radical change ahead of us, and capitalize on the immense opportunity that this change presents.