The Donroe Doctrine: A noose for China
Trump's intervention in Venezuela came as a surprise to me, but the more I dig, the more it looks like the first public domino in a grand strategy poised to isolate and weaken China.
The way things go right for China in the 2020s
Oil (and other international trade) would settle without US dollars. Which weakens the US's ability to cause pain to enemies unless the US wishes to intervene militarily.
There would be a multitude of thorns in the side of the US that cannot be ignored, dragging the US's money and military all over the world to put out fires. E.g. threats on trade vessels in the Red Sea or the Persia Gulf, ISIS threats in the Middle East, cartels and a drug problem coming from Central and South America, etc.
Europe would be wasting its entire economic and military strength fighting Russia in Ukraine. Weakening both Russia and Europe.
The US's response to all these threats and challenges would be heavy handed and selfish and would further push allies away. Neutral countries would be hungry for an alternative system.
Excessive and reckless government spending, in the US, paired with tepid economic growth pushes the US government to the verge of default.
This would all come to a head in the late 2020s where the US would be overextended, diplomatically isolated, broke, and unable to project power in East Asia. That would be the moment China moves on Taiwan and the fighting would be brief.
Confidence in the Western world order would shatter and the fence sitters countries would flock to the new Chinese world order. This would conclude the era of the US as the dominant superpower.
China's main weakness
It's oil. It's the one thing China does not have naturally within its borders.
China imports ~75% of it's oil. These imports mainly come from Saudi Arabia (~20%), Iran (~20%), Russia (~15%), Iraq (~12%), Venezuela (~6%), Brazil (~5%).
Iranian, Venezuelan, Russian oil often comes from places like Malaysia where they relabel it before selling it to China to evade sanctions. Most of those imports are via sea because pipelines would be too expensive given the vast distances and rough terrain.
On top of that oil purchases are predominantly done in US Dollars. Which means China's dependency on oil imports, continually lends strength to the US Dollar.
China's plan
Take Taiwan and create an international order independent of the West with China at its center. In the 2020s that has meant:
- Get oil from US adversaries (securing it's weak spot)
- Hollow out the industrial base of the West
- Settle trade without using USD
That creates a viable alternative to the West that can be completely self sufficient. In fact the West is/would be dependent on this new world order for industrial goods.
Meaning when China makes a move on Taiwan, they can survive conflict long enough for the West to fall on its own sword.
The West may still have more and better planes, ships, weapons, etc. But without the industrial base to replenish loses, China wins in a long conflict.
This has been written about extensively and fairly obvious to observers for years.
The flaw
If China can't get oil independent of the West during such a war, then their war machine will not last long enough for their strategy to work. Oil will become a problem before the West runs out of weapons.
In 10 or so years their war machine may run on electricity, but today it requires oil.
Recent events are a direct counter to China's strategy
There is a web of anti-Western countries that depend on each other to survive. China is bolstering this loose coalition and using them for their own benefit and has become the core driving interest in this web.
Beyond the core are Russia and Iran who play outsized roles that benefit China directly.
Then there are countries critical to Russia and Iran like Belarus, Cuba, Venezuela, Syria, North Korea, and Iraq.
Then there are critical players who are not firmly in either camp (yet): Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India, Mexico, and much of Southeast Asia.
Russia's role
Russia's ambitions to be a global superpower have motivated it to punch far above its weight in the 21st century and be a huge thorn in the West's side. For decades they've been propping up anti-Western regimes like Syria, North Korea, Cuba, etc in exchange for provide friendly ports and air bases to project power in key regions.
Their economy and population just aren't large enough anymore to truly compete at the level of China or the US. So they have overplayed their hand. They're overextended in Ukraine, and have not been able to protect their interest elsewhere because of it.
Russia does have some of the largest known reserves of oil and gas on the planet and decent enough infrastructure to keep it flowing. That makes them useful to China, at the same time they're quite vulnerable.
Russia's weakness
Russia relies on India, China, and Turkey to buy their oil, coal, and other commodities. Sanctions have closed many markets to them and they have to sell their forbidden goods at a discount.
Russia relies on Iran for weapons (specifically drones).
Given their war in Ukraine, they now depend on North Korea and Cuba for manpower, as well as Belarus for logistics and power projection into the heart of Europe.
Russia also utilizes Syria, Cuba, and Venezuela for friendly ports and friendly playgrounds for their intelligence work.
If you start to chip away at these allies, Russia weakens and the whole coalition weakens.
Iran's role
Iran is a key driver of the conflicts that become quagmires for the US's military and international goodwill. They're large supporters of Hamas and Hezbollah which drag the US's money and military might into the Middle East in Israel's defense.
Iran is a large provider of oil to China and weapons to Russia.
Iran also "controls" Iraq... kind of? It's fair to say that Iraq is vulnerable to Iran's influence and that means that over 30 percent of China's oil and a considerable amount of global oil exports are controlled by this regime.
Iran is also well positioned to control or threaten or protect trade through the Persian Gulf (from much of the Middle East) and on the way to India and China.
Iran's weakness
They're a highly centralized, and highly unpopular, authoritarian state. The whole system is designed to give power to the Supreme Leader. If you take a few people off the board, Iran could experience rapid and sustainable regime change.
Why Venezuela?
As mentioned before: Venezuela is another oil source, friendly naval and air base, an intelligence playground, and all around thorn in the US's side.
Venezuela's oil just happens to be the kind of oil that's compatible with US refineries, so we can turn a flow of oil to our enemies into a boon for our economy as well.
Venezuela is (was?) also a highly centralized, and highly unpopular, authoritarian regime. If you take Maduro off the board, the regime can quickly change.
Venezuela was probably the easiest regime to flip, and it was useful timing.
Why January 3rd, 2026?
In isolation, "arresting" (kidnapping?) Maduro feels out of the blue. The operation had been planned for months, but I think was triggered with very precise timing.
It happened very early into the recent protests in Iran. There were signs this was more dangerous than usual for the regime, but not a certainty at the time.
For Iran to fall they need to feel threatened by their citizens. For that to happen protests have to be MASSIVE and key military assets need seizing. Regimes with full control of their military and police don't need to flee.
For regime change in Iran, you need the military and police to defect to the protesters' side. That only happens both the protests are persistent and violence against the protesters is deterred. Sometimes that deterrence is a viral video of a grieving mother whose child was killed by jack-booted thugs. Other times it's protesters that are miraculously armed. Still other times it's because Trump says he'll bomb your ass if you kill more protesters.
Trump needed to be a credible threat to the Iranian regime at the precise moment the protests could turn ugly in a way that would suppress them (like this weekend). Trump is now a credible threat because of Venezuela.
No one takes Trump's jokes as just jokes anymore. No one imagines his threats are idle. And he's threatening the Iranian regime's key people personally.
But...why are we suddenly threatening Mexico?
Cuba is not a highly centralized authoritarian regime. Castro, for all his flaws, set up a system that would require removing thousands of people off the board before regime change would be possible.
Where Maduro and Khamenei are central figures that command all aspects of the state (and present a central point of failure). Cuba has a vast pyramid of party members constantly vying for responsibility and power, so they can take over at a moment's notice if their boss disappears.
The regime in Cuba isn't ready to fall just yet, because it would require an armed, popular revolt.
Cuba is a poor country already, so people are always on the verge of very hard times. They're also highly dependent on oil imports for their electrical grid. If oil were suddenly even more scarce it isn't hard to imagine riots in a matter of days or weeks. And they get their oil from..... you guessed it! Venezuela and Mexico!
The blockade on Venezuela hurts Cuba. Convincing Mexico to cut off Cuba? That is a big pressure point that could legitimately destabilize the regime.
Trump has threatened to bomb cartel members before, but now maybe he's serious?
Yeah, because he can use that as leverage to convince Mexico into a settlement that cuts Cuba off from oil.
Why Greenland?
Greenland seems to be a two-fold thing.
First: Trump senses weakness. He likes to do deals, he senses weakness because of European panic due to Venezuela, and wants to see if he can get it.
Second: Greenland is actually very useful for US defense and trade protection. It's unlikely we'll see power projected by Russia or China where Greenland would help, but there's a reason why the US took control of Greenland during WWII.
Honestly it seems like this is just opportunism on a legitimate interest without critical levels of urgency. It just has the side effect of pissing Europe off enough that they may finally stand on their own two feet militarily.
Former partners become China's noose
Where the anti-Western regimes currently look to form a noose around America and her interests. This grand strategy is aimed at swiftly turn those same former enemies into a noose around China.
Economically encircling China with oil and GPU controls.
Physically with Alaska, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Australia, India, Iran, Europe, and Greenland encircling the Russia-China axis.
And China's primary ally will be an albatross around their neck, a drain on their resources for decades to come.
Explaining the last few years
Middle East
Aiding Israel in their war in Gaza baited Iran into pouring resources into keeping their proxies in the fight (Hamas, Hezbollah, etc). Israel struck targets in Syria to cut these supply lines and deter interference. Every neighbor of Israel was weakened or warned by this war.
The Syrian civil war, as dynamic a bloodbath as it was, Assad maintained control. Probably due to help from anti-Western allies. Suddenly a year ago, he lost. Maybe the bombing by Israel helped? Regardless, it's a huge opportunity for the West to cut off a strategic Russian ally and key player in the terrorism that threatens Israel.
Bombing the nuclear facilities of Iran was odd and out of the blue right? Iran wasn't any closer to a nuke than the last 20 years people have been saying they're "months away." Seems to me it was to make the Iranian regime appear weak. Setting the psychological groundwork for a popular revolt to be confident they can win.
After all, if Iran falls then there are no legitimate threats to Israel in the region. Meaning the US can pivot away from the Middle East.
Europe/Russia
Trump really ramped up the pressure on Europe in his second term. Cutting off aid to Ukraine was a huge wake up call. And poking their pride and ego to stir up European unity and motivation to show their power really seems to work.
Europe is finally preparing to stand on it's own two feet in terms of defense. This allows the US to pivot away from Europe.
We're suddenly seizing Russian oil tankers. Weird right? Well without those boats Russia can't evade sanction and they won't be able to replace them when they need to supply China.
What about the fence sitters?
The fence sitters (India, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, etc) derive power by trading with both sides and committing to neither. India buys Russian oil. Saudi Arabia and Brazil sell oil to China, etc.
Historically the fence sitters really determine who is actually in charge of the world order. If they're all on one side, that power is dominant. If they're split, the struggle is ongoing. They'll flock to a dominant power if it arises, because it'll mean their safety and prosperity.
Alone, the fence sitters can't credibly create a new world order. They don't have everything to be self sufficient. But when you add in Russia and China, that's a real possibility. Which is why they've been making more moves towards independence from the Western system.
In the last few years the BRICS countries floating a new currency to settle trade in in response to the US being heavy handed in sanctioning unfriendly countries. It's better for BRICS to have their own infrastructure in case the US targets them next!
This would have been a real threat to US dominance because if the US can't sanction people easily, their only real leverage is direct military intervention. Which is far more expensive and a far less credible threat.
Trump deterred that somehow, but it is inevitable if the US doesn't remain dominant, or becomes too hostile towards their interests.
Drugs, "defense," and trade imbalances as a pretext
Everywhere that's a source of drugs coming into the US have a convenient pretext for Trump to take action.
Everyone knows Colombia is where the drugs actually come from in that region, but Venezuela's close enough so that's what we're going with. Remember the drug boats? Yeah just pretext for this grand strategy. Months of groundwork though, and it worked well enough to avoid serious blow back from his own (nominally anti-regime change) party!
Going after Cuba will be about "defense." They're just a handful of miles from Miami! The horror! Ignoring that Cuba's been that far from our border for hundred plus years. Same deal with Greenland.
Trade imbalances are a pretext to turn allies into adversaries, to renegotiate the status quo. Countries make long term bets on how the US will act, and when Trump is erratic on trade it makes them insecure. Then he can exploit that weakness to get a better deal. This continues to bind countries neutral, hostile, or friendly to the US economy.
They're all just pretext for continuing this grand strategy.
What to expect in the next few years
Venezuela
They'll be turned into a friendly petro-state. US oil companies will commandeer existing infrastructure, revamp it, get production to all time high, and export to US refineries.
The Venezuelan people will benefit from a less heavy handed regime, but it's unclear if the one that replaces it will be any more democratic.
I'll bet there will be some nominal ownership or royalty in the oil revenues from US companies to attempt to keep Venezuelans happy despite the bald faced colonialism of the activity.
Iran
The people will turn from protesting to seizing key assets at the direction of the Shah. The defections will be large, and the foreign mercenaries hired by Iran won't be enough to hold off the rebellion.
The Shah will return and quickly start securing ties with the West. I'll bet there will be attempts to normalize relations with Israel in 2026-27 and, if successful, the rest of the Middle East will follow suit.
Mexico
Trump will hammer Mexico diplomatically and, if need be, with bombs and raids on cartels.
It should settle quickly because for some gosh-darn reason Trump's main goal seems to just be negotiating Mexico's oil trading. Specifically, but not primarily in the eyes of the public, they'll be required to cut off exports to Cuba.
There may be some commitment from Mexico to increasing security forces/military spending to combat cartels. But nothing will change since this is just to maintain the pretext for intervention.
Cuba
There will be significant suffering in Cuba due to missing imports that they rely on. There will also be less revenue from their intelligence and mercenary activities, since there will be fewer buyers.
Eventually the scarcity will result in riots that will pop up in an intensity not seen for decades. Eventually becoming a real threat to the regime.
Mysteriously, the US will suddenly care about this regime and start pressuring them to step aside. Maybe there's suddenly weapons available to people protesting/rebelling. Hopefully it is quick and there's not a serious civil war.
Syria
Between me writing the notes for this blog and writing this section Trump announced he's bombing ISIS in Syrian. Sigh, I can only write so fast. Anyway... I was going to say:
Syria will likely be a threat that needs some intervention to keep Iran from getting support in their hour of need.
Kurdistan
The Kurds are a people group in a concentrated geography but they're split across several countries (primarily Turkey, Iraq, Iran). They've been dying to have their own country since the British butchered the borders after WWI.
They've already made incursions into Iran while the regime is wobbly. My guess is there may finally be some movement on a Kurdish state. maybe as a compromise for western help for the new Iranian regime. Since Iran....influences....Iraq, the time might be right for this change.
Belarus
Honestly I don't know much about Belarus, but because they're a critical ally to Russia, therefore I expect them to come into play soon. No clue how.
Russia
As the oil going to China starts to come from Western-friendly regimes, China will start to demand more oil from Russia. I'll bet China invests heavily in Russian oil infrastructure, sending Chinese companies and labor to fix and expand operations.
We'll see if they'll go so far as to expand the network of oil pipelines from Russia to China. The current pipes do not have the capacity needed to supply what China will need. And there are advantages to pipelines despite the cost: without expanded pipelines Russia has to ship oil via tanker. Like from the Black Sea allllll the way to eastern China. (Again, through straits easily struck by Iranian-based military assets)
Continued seizure of Russian oil tankers will keep tightening the noose around the two countries so that the effect cost of oil will keep rising for China. Making any military action untenable.
I doubt the Russian regime will fall, but it will definitely diminish. That may be enough to get Putin replaced personally, but it's unlikely a successor will be more peaceful or any more powerful in international affairs.
India/Saudi Arabia/Brazil
There will be a continued focus by the US to bring the powerful fence sitters closer to the West.
Trump will shit on Lula (Brazil) mercilessly, but will talk very highly of Modi (India) and MBS (Saudi). There will be lots of visits to the White House, maybe some trade deals. Anything to get them to more formally declare themselves against Russia and China.
This could all happen very quickly
The US intelligence apparatus has been hard at work for decades trying to lay the groundwork for something like this. These opportunities do not come up naturally, and certainly not all around the same time.
These powder kegs have been cultivated painstakingly so that there will be a series of opportunities in the next few years to be seized upon as they are ready.
It isn't unreasonable to think we may have the entire global anti-Western coalition flipped or isolated by 2028.
How it goes wrong
It could all happen very quickly, but if there are missteps or miscalculations, things could go horribly wrong.
Scenario 1: boots on the ground. If the US puts the Army into a prolonged fight or as an occupation force ANYWHERE, I doubt they'll be out of that role before 2030. Doesn't matter if it's Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, or Syria. It'll likely be another "we spent two decades in Afghanistan to replace the Taliban with the Taliban." situation.
Scenario 2: Dictators are replaced by worse dictators. Or Anarchy. When Libya collapse due to US intervention we got ISIS. When we deposed Saddam Hussein, we ended up with Iraq as a puppet state to Iran. Venezuela could feasibly end up in exactly the same place as before, or worse with their new leader.
Scenario 3: There's stiffer resistance than expected. The Iranian regime could disperse the protests, or Ukraine could collapse due to European impotence, or any number of possible problems. If that happens there may be enough of an anti-western coalition that China can continue on it's current plan, which may still work.
The Don-roe doctrine
People have been talking about the Don-roe doctrine as Trump's re invigoration of the Monroe doctrine ("stay out of our hemisphere, or else"). I think there's more to it than that.
Trump lays the groundwork every day
People critique Trump for rambling, and often rambling about irrelevant or outlandish things.
My interpretation is that he floats ideas in crowds or on TV to see the reaction he'll get. It's his version of polling. Then if he gets the response he wants, he pushes forward. If he is surprised with the push-back, he'll pause pushing in that direction.
But everything he actually wants has been said already in one or more of his speeches. The time just hasn't been right yet to actually do it.
Trump senses weakness and pokes at it
It seems that Trump has a superpower for smelling when someone has a weakness. Enemies, allies, doesn't matter. He can tell what he can press on to make them roll over.
This is why he considers having a large amount of debt the bank's problem, because he's willing an able to default and that's worse for the bank than him.
It's a skill that allows him to strike deals most other presidents never could.
When the time is right, he goes for it
The groundwork for what he wants is laid every day. He's always probing for weaknesses. Then one day, it all lines up perfectly: Iran's got protests, Syria's being bombed, Cuba's looking wobbly.
Then someone on the team presents a detailed version of the opportunity and he says go.
It's always hilarious when the media's all surprised because he gaslights them so hard. He always says something like "I've been saying it for years, now you're surprised I got it done?" Even though he's said a thousand things he hasn't actually done...yet.
Don't underestimate this administration
People that hate Trump always attribute to stupidity what Trump is doing. Sometimes they are missteps for sure.
But it seems some of these actions are part of an incredibly well planned grand strategy that the people on his team have been working on for months or since the fall of the Berlin wall.
Should make for interesting times.
Disclaimer
I am not a fan nor hater of Trump. I simply aim to explain what we're seeing and maybe predict what we can expect in the months and years to come. If I had my way we'd keep from foreign entanglements entirely.
I am not a fan nor hater of Israel either. When I point out the US helping Israel, I simple observe that we cannot seem to leave the Middle East ourselves until Israel feels secure. Even if we have no need for it.