If an abundant world is dependent on the automation of most critical labor, what will humans do all day? Does increased automation necessitate a Universal Basic Income for people to survive?

What will people want to do?

Putting aside how we will organize ourselves politically or economically, if given the freedom to do anything, what will people want to do with their time?

The case of chess

Chess has substantially grown in popularity in recent years. Which is odd because when computers started to become better than humans at chess, many predicted the end of chess as a popular pastime. That has not come to pass.

There are now more resources and content creators that help people learn and practice chess. In fact the computer being able to play chess better than anyone has made it easier for people to practice by playing against computers that simulate different levels of skill.

This demonstrates that just because a computer can outperform a human doesn’t mean that people don’t find joy in that activity. There are endless possibilities for people to spend their time on given an abundant future.

Developing a craft

Whether it’s rebuilding classic cars, carpentry, painting, or chess people love to develop their craft. People do these things despite having full time jobs, kids, or even living in conflict zones. The human spirit to create is impossible to contain.

Given more time and resources in an abundant future, many people will choose to develop a craft.

There will be many people that just choose to watch Netflix all day, but there will be many more people who will get bored and want to do something that brings them joy.

Relationships

Humans can spend an infinite amount of time building and enjoying their relationships. Having every critical job automated only enhances the ability for people to spend as much time as they want developing community and cultivating healthy and joyful relationships.

Having a family

If you ask folks who don’t have kids or don’t plan to have kids why they don’t have kids, a good portion of them cite finances or even pessimism about the state of the world.

In a world of abundance those concerns are mostly washed away.

People will have more resources and more time to raise their kids. I expect the size of families to grow considerably in this future. At least after a generation or two have passed and this mindset has died out.

Expanding the scope and level of abundance

The scope and level of abundance will start small and grow to encompass more and more people as industrial capacity and automation ramps up. At first it may be limited to some portion of some countries on Earth. 

As industrial capacity grows, more and more people will be encompassed by this bubble.

As industrial capacity grows further, the level of abundance within the bubble(s) will increase.

Some people will choose to leave the bubble of abundance to help expand its scope to cover more people.

Even if the bubble of abundance covers all of Earth, we will likely expand beyond Earth. Those frontiers won’t have the industrial capacity for abundance, so there will be places that don’t have the same levels of abundance as others.

These frontiers will attract people with the pioneer spirit, who want to expand the scope and scale of abundance ever farther. It will be a noble pursuit to sacrifice a life of leisure to help future humans thrive.

Post-scarcity economics

Assuming humanity ascends the abundance scale, the hardest question outstanding is how do we maintain that situation? How will resources be created and distributed in a world of automation and vanishingly low prices?

Option 1: Universal Basic Income

The most common idea presented when theorizing about a future of abundance is Universal Basic Income (UBI), where the government gives everyone a stipend that’s enough for people to buy at least the necessities of life, making work optional. 

People may still work, but they’d do so to buy the luxuries in life and they’d work jobs where a human touch is still desired by society (healthcare, politics, childcare, education).

People would still be consumers with choice of what they want to spend their income on, preserving some robustness to the economy.

In this arrangement corporations or governments would still own and operate the systems that produce all the goods and services in the economy with little labor performed by humans. 

The primary risk in a UBI future is centralization. Everyone’s income would come from one source. Over time, the incentives will be for centralization and consolidation of the corporations that produce all the goods. 

This arrangement puts enormous trust in governments and corporations to not abuse their (increased) power over people as automation increases.

Option 2: Creator Economy

There are other options, and one I don’t hear much about is one based on the Creator Economy. It’s similar to the UBI world in that capitalism is still in place for the production of goods and services, but people’s source of income would be very different.

The cost of things in an abundant future will approach zero but they will never be zero. These low-cost things would all be a standard, mass-produced IKEA version of everything (apartments, furniture, clothing, decor, etc).

At the same time, people will want to fill their time doing something. This is an opportunity for people to develop their chosen craft and sell the results to other people who want to express their individuality by buying the non-standard version of things (clothing, decor, furniture, etc).

The incentives are there for a circular economy where people earn their income by selling the results of their craft (pottery, books, patreon subscriptions, superchats, etc). In turn, their desire to express their individuality (and demonstrate high status) creates the demand for what others are selling.

People would still have to work to pay for their (diminishing) bills, but they wouldn’t have to work as much. People would also be encouraged to work on what they enjoy, because the income needed to survive will be orders of magnitude lower than it is today.

The internet has proven that there is always a group of people somewhere on Earth that share your interests. The internet has also shown that people like to support their favorite creators financially, or buy things from them. 

There’s still a question whether an entire economy can be built based on this, but there are many advantages to a system where people still have autonomy over their income.

This system is also more naturally adaptive as the levels of abundance grow. As jobs get permanently automated over the coming decades those displaced people can transition to the creator economy. The gains in productivity from the job that was automated will give more discretionary income to those still employed in the old economy and allow them to consume more from the Creator Economy.

As even more decades pass and prices drop further, people will have the option to work fewer and fewer hours to pay their (diminishing) bills.

A day in the life of a citizen of abundance

You wake up to the gentle tones of your alarm clock as your shades raise to reveal bright sunlight.

You look outside your window at the skyline of massive high rises with spacious multi-story apartments just like yours that every family in the city has.

You start brewing some coffee which was grown in a vertical plantation on the other side of town and see your domestic bot preparing breakfast for everyone. Your plate is already ready for you.

Once the caffeine hits the system and you’ve had a few bites to eat you start to get your kids up and ready for school. 

Once you’ve wrangled the kids, you take them next door to their school. The kids run to talk to their friends and you see the teachers readying for the day. The teachers are mostly parents who took the time to get certified so they could spend more time with kids being one of the human teachers at the school.

Most of the teaching is done individually by AIs that tailor the learning experience to each student, but the human is something this school prefers to have. The teachers are able to teach whatever is needed, but they’re often there to help students who are having a hard day so they can continue with their studies. 

You start your day in your workshop, where you’ve been working on building a gorgeous live-edge dining room table for a couple that lives in your building. You’re currently watching a video from a well-known carpenter that is teaching a technique for joining the legs of the table with the table top in a way that makes the seam very subtle. You’ve been a long time subscriber and they’re one of the reasons you got into carpentry in the first place.

You spend a few hours getting a couple legs attached but you remember that you made plans to meet up with some friends at a park across town to catch up. So, before it gets too late you decide to hit the gym a few blocks away.

There’s a gym in your building but you prefer this one because it’s fully kitted out and even has some personal trainer bots roaming around to help make recommendations on form. Your digital assistant starts talking through your headphones and helping prep you for the workout it prepped for you.

Once you’re showered you rush out to meet your friends. You take the elevator to the basement level of your building and a driverless taxi is waiting for you. 

As the taxi drives through the tunnels of the city you get a text from your parents asking about the trip y’all plan to take to the coast. They’re excited to spend a week with their grandkids, it’s been a few months. You’re looking forward to a few nights walking the beach with your spouse.

As the taxi arrives, your friends flag you down revealing that they’ve gathered in a secluded pocket of the park with benches surrounded by a beautiful garden. There are dozens of sections like that in this park, each garden styled differently, maintained by a different gardener. Some are maintained by humans and others by bots.

It’s a common sight since much of the city has been converted to parks. Once the city transitioned transport to tunnels, every street was converted to a greenery-lined, pedestrian-only walkway with pocket parks littered throughout.

After spending a good amount of time together, y’all decide the next time to meet up and you head back for dinner. 

When you get back your spouse and kids are already at the table waiting to start eating. Your domestic bot hands you your tailored dinner and you take a seat with everyone. 

Everyone gets their own tailored meal based on preference and health considerations. You’re working on some minor inflammation issues your doctor flagged last week after your monthly blood draw. So you’ll be eating a poke bowl on a bed of lettuce with plentiful salmon and fresh-picked avocados. 

After you and your spouse get the kids to bed, you both settle in to read a historical fiction book a friend recommended that just came out. Capping another great day.

This can be your future

This is one lifestyle, there are many other versions: suburban ones, rural ones, ones where you’re a perpetual student living on a college campus collecting diplomas, or ones where you’re a nomad traveling across the world as you write novels.

These futures can be yours, if we focus on building and accelerating the techno-abundance loop in a way that can continuously increase the scope and level of abundance available to humanity.

Part 5: Retaining Market Forces During Price Collapse

1. Monopoly busting
2. Encouraging entrepreneurship
3. Natural Monopolies
4. Choosing decentralized solutions